Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Down Economy Boosts Military Enlistment

Down Economy Boosts Military


Enlistment figures spike

by Bryan Bender
Published on Sunday, March 1, 2009 by The Boston Globe

WASHINGTON - The faltering US economy is fueling a dramatic
turnaround in military recruiting, with new statistics showing that
the Army is experiencing the highest rate of new enlistments in six years.

The Army exceeded its goals each month from October through January -
the first quarter of the new fiscal year - for both the active-duty
Army and the Army Reserve, according to figures compiled by the US
Army Recruiting Command.

Officials said it is the first time since the first quarter of fiscal
year 2003, before the start of the Iraq War, that the Army has
started out its recruiting year on such a high note.

In recent years the Army either missed its initial goals or barely
met them, and was forced to accept increasing percentages of recruits
who either did not graduate from high school, scored in the lowest
category on the armed forces qualification test, or required a waiver
for past criminal activity.

Those trends had sparked deep concern that the largest branch of the
armed forces was headed for a crisis in quality at a time when it is
expanding the size of the overall force.

The latest recruiting outlook "is good news in the nick of time,"
said Beth Asch, a senior economist specializing in military manpower
studies at the government-funded Rand Corporation.

Citing historical trends, Asch and other specialists predict that
quality will improve along with the numbers, including the share of
new recruits who have earned high school diplomas and scored high on
entrance exams.

The Army has long had a goal of ensuring that at least 90 percent of
new recruits have high-school diplomas - considered a key measure of
competence and commitment. But in recent years the percentage of
enlistees who completed high school has dropped below 80 percent.

The recruiting command, based at Fort Campbell in Kentucky, does not
compile statistics on the quality of new recruits until the end of
the fiscal year, so such information about recent enlistees is not
yet available.

But Asch, who frequently advises the Pentagon on demographic trends,
thinks the Army has reason to be hopeful.

"What the enlistment models would predict is there would be an
increase in high-quality enlistment," said Asch.

Alan Gropman, a professor at the National Defense University in
Washington who specializes in military recruiting, agreed. "They have
more people to choose from and they will choose better people," he said.

Another factor that may be driving the recent gains, specialists
said, is the improved situation in Iraq and the expectation that US
military involvement in the war will be winding down - thus
decreasing the likelihood that a new recruit would be deployed there.

On Friday, President Obama announced a plan to withdraw combat troops
from Iraq by August 2010.

A recent study by researchers at Clemson University concluded that
the Iraq war was a major factor in the steep drop in enlistments,
especially among the most highly qualified potential recruits. The
2007 study found that the Iraq war had "reduced Army high-quality
enlistments by one-third, after controlling for other factors."

"If you extrapolate, this Iraq affect will disappear and presumably
there will be a reversal of that and there will be an increase in
enlistment," said Asch.

But the dominant factor driving more people to consider Army careers
appears to be the steady rise in the unemployment rate across the
country. Since September, the unemployment rate nationwide has
increased from roughly 6.2 percent to 7.6 percent, a rise of more
than 20 percent, according to government figures.

Government studies in recent decades have indicated that for every 10
percent increase in unemployment there is usually a 5 percent boost
in military recruiting.

"Typically a bad economy has worked to the benefit of the military,"
said retired Navy Rear Admiral John D. Hutson, currently the dean of
the Franklin Pierce Law Center in Concord, N.H.

So far this fiscal year, the Army's recruiting numbers show a steady
improvement in every month. The Army exceeded its goal by 293 in
October, 730 in November, 429 in December, and 706 in January for a
total of 2,158.

"It was our best [period] in six years, in that we achieved our
monthly missions [in] both active and Reserve each month," said
Douglas Smith, a spokesman for the recruiting command. "We know that
historically an increase in the civilian unemployment rate has
resulted in an increase in Army enlistments."

Indeed, it appears that the sagging economy is helping all the
branches of the military, not just the Army, which has borne the
brunt of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In February, the Defense Department released figures showing that for
the month of January all branches of the active-duty military met or
exceeded their recruiting goals. The Army, Navy, Air Force, and
Marine Corps also met or exceeded their goal of re-enlisting current members.

In the Reserve corps, only the Army National Guard did not meet its
January goal, but remained "well ahead" of its annual goal to date,
the Pentagon reported.

But while a bad economy is usually a boon for military recruiting,
Hutson warns that the Pentagon still must closely monitor who it is
bringing into the ranks.

People who are joining the ranks for purely economic reasons may not
make the best soldiers, he said - especially when the economy turns
around and they discover that they still must complete their service.

"The military has to be very careful about the motivation of the
people it is bringing into the force," said Hutson. "Military service
is hard work. It is not easy to serve well and honorably. Motivation
has to be very good. If your motivation is you can't get a job
anywhere else that is not necessarily the motivation they are looking for."


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